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2012 Tour de France Update

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We’re now mid-way through the Tour de France and it surely goes without saying that up to this point, everything has gone entirely to plan for Bradley Wiggins and his Sky team.  I’ll admit I was one who did not think Wiggins was deserving of his ‘favourite’ tag before the race began (perhaps not until next year) but I seem to have been completely wrong.

Wiggins took the yellow jersey from Fabian Cancellara after dropping the Swiss multiple stage winner on an early climb and hammered home his advantage by crushing all opposition on the first time-trial on Monday.  Before Wednesdays stage he maintained a 1:53s gap over his main rival for the win, Cadel Evans.  If Wiggins can retain any sort of lead over his rivals while negotiating the mountains, there will be one last time-trial on the penultimate stage to once again increase his lead.

Wiggins is usually a pretty cool customer in front of interviewers but every now and then he lets the questioner know what he really thinks.  The following transcript is an exchange which took place not long after a stage finish when an interviewer asked him what he though of those who accused the team of doping:

“I say they’re just f*****g w*****s, I cannot be doing with people like that.  It justifies they’re own bone idleness because they can’t imagine applying themselves to do anything in their lives.

“It’s easy for them to sit under a pseudonym on Twitter and write that sort of shit rather than get off their own arses in their lives and apply  themselves and work at something and achieve something.  And that’s ultimately what counts.  C**ts.”

That’s a fantastic bit of plain speaking rhetoric which is pretty much what you should expect if you attempt to ambush a rider minutes after a stage finish with a ludicrous question about drug abuse.

Also entertaining is a video taken in the press area in which Bradley Wiggins expresses his unhappiness after nearly being decapitated by a fast-moving cameraman.  Check it out:

Euro 2012 Review & Preview

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If you are gambler and if, in particular, you like to put your money on what could be seen as a safe bet, you may now be more than a little concerned about Sunday’s final between Spain and Italy.  Germany will have let a lot of people down and not just the German population;  10/3 to win before the tournament began and 6/4 to reach the final, every German performance in the competition has been excellent until last night.

Only Joachim Loew will know why he set his team up to try and contain Andrea Pirlo rather than stick to their previously successful game plan.  Rather than starting the game on the front foot and taking the game to Germany, they changed their tactics, allowed Italy to retain the ball and paid the price.  Mario Balotelli scored two classy goals, one from a header and one by springing the German offside trap and all Germany could manager was one very late penalty. Check the goals out:

So Italy will go into Sunday’s final against Spain probably wondering how exactly they managed it.  The Italians began with odds of 14/1 for the win and 6/1 to reach the final so there will at least be some happy speculative bettors out there.  Pirlo again played well last night but you feel that if the Spanish can dominate possession as comprehensively as they normally do then Italy will suffer; if Pirlo can’t dictate the play then Italian chances will be limited.  On the plus side, Italy will look to their opening 1 – 1 draw with Spain for some optimism.

Spain have also no doubt disappointed; they may be missing David Villa and Carles Puyol but they also appear to have been sleepwalking through this competition.  That they’ve managed to do that all the way to the final does go some way to justifying their tag as pre-tournament favourites at 14/5.  They will certainly want to improve on the semi-final performance which saw them sneak past Portugal on penalties and will want to rediscover their goal scoring form to avoid another tedious 120 minutes of football.

If you fancy a late bet, best odds currently are 9/8 for Spain and 16/5 for Italy with the draw at 9/4.  That draw might not be a bad shout.

Arbitrage Betting Guide

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Arbitrage betting has, in the last decade or so, reached a level of prominence which would have been unheard of in the days before the internet.  Without reference to sports betting, the practice of arbitrage is the science of finding two sets of odds on the same event which will result in a guaranteed profit if the correct amounts of money are placed.

Arbitrage betting can of course be practised on any market in which there are at least two or more bookmakers offering the required range of odds.  Our focus is of course sport but the financial and currency markets are areas in which arbitrage betting can also be used.

Here’s an example of a recent successful arbitrage bet:

The person betting had a total of £1000 to invest and placed the following amounts on a French volleyball match:

Montpellier to win – 11/4 with Stan James £278 placed would return £1,042.50            Stade Poitevin to win – 11/25 with Bet365 £722 placed would return £1.042.57

Now it’s pretty obvious that, using this example, the person betting would walk away with a profit of either £42.50 or £42.57 (just over 4.2%).  That’s it, a tax free profit for watching the markets and calculating the correct amount of money to lay.  This is the point at which it becomes more complicated.  Out of the millions of odds available out there, how does the discerning arbitrage gambler pick out the ones which offer the guaranteed profit?

arbitrage

Can this really work?

The reason it’s now possible is of course the power of the internet, or more specifically computer software which can trawl the online bookmakers to find the arbitrage opportunities for you.  The software will then calculate the correct amount of money needed to be laid.

So there must be some drawbacks right?  Well yes – the bookmakers obviously don’t like it and have sophisticated software themselves to spot customers accounts who may be engaged in arbitrage.  It’s not illegal but there’s no compulsion for the bookies to take your bets either.

Another drawback is that you will need a pretty hefty bankroll to begin with; in the example above it costs £1000 to make £42.  You will also need a large number of bookies accounts and different credit cards so get your accounting and spreadsheet skills up to scratch.  Lastly, odds change all the time so when the arbitrage software finds an opportunity you need to act quickly – lay the money a few seconds late and you could face a loss rather than a profit.